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Илларионов вступил в «пятую колонну» |
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07:10:2004 г. |
Андрей Илларионов, советник президента Путина по экономике, в своем интервью газете Financial Times фактически выступил против экономической политики президента. Произошло это в тот самый момент, когда президент (устами Владислава Суркова) призвал нацию к объединению.
То, что экономическая политика властей в последние годы шла в разрез со взглядами Илларионова ни для кого не было секретом. Реформы естественных монополий фактически буксуют, дело «ЮКОСа» подпортило инвестиционную привлекательность страны, а правительство Фрадкова «затаилось». Удивительно, пожалуй, то, что г-н Илларионов не позволял себе публично критиковать действия администрации президента и правительства. Возможно, что он видел для себя в администрации президента роль тайного советника, который оберегал своего шефа от опасных поступков.
Десять лет назад Илларионову уже приходилось совершать подобные поступки – в феврале 1994 года после изгнания из правительства Егора Гайдара и его сподвижников он обвинил своего патрона Виктора Черномырдина (а Илларионов был советником премьера) в «экономическом перевороте».
Резкое интервью Илларионова означает, что распределение сил в недрах исполнительной власти достигло новой отметки, когда даже осторожная политика советника перестала приносить плоды. Победа бюрократов (придумавших для себя самоназвание «государственников») становится очевидной.
Анвар Амиров
Эксперт ИИЦ «Панорама»
Kremlin man but no fan of state control
By Stefan Wagstyl, Financial Times
Published: October 7 2004 03:00 | Last updated: October 7 2004 03:00
Andrei Illarionov is so proud of speaking his mind that near the door of his Kremlin office he displays a copy of an official reprimand for breaking the rules on talking to the press.
Signed by Dmitry Medvedev, President Vladimir Putin's chief of staff, the note hangs alongside certificates for Mr Illarionov's services to economics, including one from the president himself. Mr Illarionov declines to comment on how he earned Mr Medvedev's billet doux but was pleased it had attracted attention.
These are difficult times for Mr Illarionov, a liberal economist brought into the Kremlin four years ago by Mr Putin to encourage sometimes reluctant officials to implement market-oriented reforms.
A few days ago the government announced it would take control of Gazprom back into the public sector. It would take the state's stake to 51 per cent by merging the gas giant with Rosneft, a 100 per cent state- owned company. Then ministers decided to back the Kyoto protocol, the international agreement on pollution controls, in spite of impassioned protests from Mr Illarionov.
These are just the latest frustrations of Mr Illarionov. He says his first year or so in his reform advisory job was a time of considerable achievement, including decisions to repay international debt. But from about April 2001 the effectiveness of economic policy declined as officials drifted away from market liberalisation.
"Movement towards liberalisation is associated with higher quality of economic policy. Movement towards state intervention means a decline in the quality of economic policy. With stable external prices, with such a policy we would have had a fall in economic growth and it would have been visible to anybody," says Mr Illarionov. The Yukos affair, in which the Yukos oil company has been driven to the edge of bankruptcy by crippling tax claims, looms large in Mr Illarionov's analysis. In a rare public criticism of the authorities' handling of the case by a senior Kremlin official, he says: "It's a Pandora's box and it was a serious mistake to open it. If such an error has been committed, it would be a smart move to close it straightaway."
Mr Illarionov fears the Yukos affair has boosted illiberal forces in the country. "The Yukos affair has its own logic. One can hardly imagine such a political force in the world that can stop this process now. Each new wrong step brings more new wrong steps.
"The escalation of wrong steps, the escalation of mistakes has dire consequences for the company, for the industry, for the authorities, and for the country as a whole."
Other business people are now afraid. Mr Illarionov says: "Yes, it produces fear. That is one of the crucial elements of this game. Since Mikhail Khodorkovsky [the Yukos founder] was arrested on October 25 last year talk about fear is permanent. It's widespread in groups of business people."
Mr Illarionov says Yukos has changed the perception of ownership of natural resources in Russia. And while foreign investors remain welcome in the country, they must tread carefully in oil and gas sector.
"The school of thought that natural resources are a very special commodity is spreading very fast", he said.
"In the 1990s it was widely believed that natural resources could be privately owned and therefore private companies were accumulating reserves. But over the past several years, a near- consensus has emerged that natural resources should belong to the state - not to private citizens and private companies - but the state. This is now very clearly understood and that's why any decision by foreign investors to acquire natural resources is expected to be discussed with the state."
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Putin aide says growth threatened by state
By Stefan Wagstyl and Arkady Ostrovsky in Moscow, Financial Times
Published: October 6 2004 22:01 | Last updated: October 6 2004 22:01
President Vladimir Putin's economic adviser has warned that Russia is jeopardising its economic growth by drifting away from liberal market reforms and moving towards increased state intervention.
In an interview with the Financial Times, Andrei Illarionov said the effects of high oil prices were masking the damage done by poor economic policy over the past three years. He also criticised the government for allowing the controversy surrounding Yukos, the oil company, to escalate, and warned of “dire consequences” for the company. “The quality of economic policy has got worse,” said Mr Illarionov. “In 1999 and 2000 economic policy made a positive contribution to economic growth. The best economic policy was pursued in 1999. Since 2001, it has made a negative contribution to GDP growth.” Mr Illarionov calculated that last year higher oil prices contributed 9.2 per cent to gross domestic product. But GDP increased only 7.3 per cent, so domestic factors cut growth by 1.9 percentage points.
“If we'd had stable external prices . . . we would probably have had a fall in economic growth,” said Mr Illarionov.
He has a reputation for challenging Russia's economic policymakers in public, but this is the first time the adviser has launched such a comprehensive criticism of the government. His attack comes at a time when other officials have become increasingly careful of voicing dissident views in the face of authoritarianism in the Kremlin.
His views contrast sharply with those of Mikhail Fradkov, the conservative prime minister, who has publicly backed greater state economic intervention. Mr Illarionov said officials were blocking liberal reforms because it was easier to manage the status quo than to risk making mistakes in pushing for change. “The rate of return for a government bureaucrat in redistributing rents [natural resources revenues] is incomparably higher than in trying to push responsible economic policy and liberal reform,” said Mr Illarionov.
He also criticised the authorities for allowing the Yukos affair to escalate, with the oil company facing possible bankruptcy and its founder Mikhail Khodorkovsky in jail on fraud charges.
“The Yukos affair has its own logic. One can hardly imagine such a political force in the world that can stop this process now.”
Executives were now nervous that they might be next to attract the authorities' attention.
“Since last October [when Mr Khodorkovsky was arrested] it has got really serious. It is one of the most important issues that is being discussed and even after a discussion you can see in their eyes what they are thinking,” Mr Illarionov said.
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