Nick Paton Walsh in Moscow
Friday February 13, 2004
The Guardian

Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, launched his campaign for re-election yesterday by panning the "dangerous weaknesses" of the state under his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin, and promising greater order, a "better quality of life" and more, unspecified, reform.

Mr Putin, who is expected to gain nearly three-quarters of the vote, told campaign supporters at Moscow State University that he had "restored constitutional order to the country" in his first term.

In a veiled reference to tensions with Washington, he accused unnamed "forces" of being "unable to thaw ... the ice of mistrust that amassed in the 80 years of confrontation between the former Soviet Union and the world." He said the US and Europe were allies, but added: "We cannot allow certain forces to seed discord between Russia and the rest of the world, or provoke us."

This was the first attempt at a campaign rally by the Kremlin head, who has thus far shunned electioneering and television debates, saying that his record would speak for itself. "The head of state should not engage in self-advertising," he said.

There is little need for Mr Putin to fend off his opponents. Half of the six candidates running against him admit they do not even want his job. Of the remaining three, one is standing in for his party boss, who is boycotting the vote, and another began her campaign amid speculation the Kremlin had persuaded her to run because it feared the election was too dull to attract the required 50% turnout.

The most outspoken opponent of President Putin sparked a national manhunt when he disappeared from his Moscow flat this month. He was found in Ukraine six days later, claiming to be relaxing "with friends".

"Can you name any other country in the world where a presidential candidate vanishes for days and the media, government and politicians hardly even notice?" said Lilya Shevtsova, senior associate at the Carnegie Institute. "If John Edwards vanished, it would be the equivalent of an atomic bomb."

Ivan Rybkin's brief disappearance injected drama into a race otherwise considered a foregone conclusion. A poll released on Wednesday by the pro-Kremlin Public Opinion Foundation said 90% of Russians thought Mr Putin would win the election. Seventy-one per cent said they would vote for him tomorrow, yet only 62% told the same pollsters they were going to bother to vote at all.

Mr Putin's most serious competitor is the nationalist economist Sergei Glazyev. Mr Glazyev has said his candidacy is more about drawing Mr Putin's attention to the unpopularity of his policies than about making a serious bid for the Kremlin. The same poll gives him 2.7%.

The presidential race is devoid of political heavyweights. The overwhelming victory of the pro-Putin United Russia party in December's parliamentary elections - criticised internationally for the role played by the state-owned media - has caused most of Mr Putin's traditional liberal, rightwing or communist opponents to boycott the election.

Communist leader Gennady Zuganov has refused to stand, protesting at the "irregularities" of December's vote in which his party lost over half its seats, and appointed Nikolai Kharitonov, a little-known figure, to run in his place.

The liberal Yabloko party has also pulled out of the race. Its leader, Grigori Yavlinski, said the absence of an independent legal system in Russia meant there were no longer any "rules of the game". "I'm sending a signal that it's not acceptable", he said.

Credibility

The Kremlin's main concern is whether Mr Putin's rival candidates are credible enough. Many analysts have suggested that fear of a low turnout caused the Kremlin to permit Irina Khakamada - who is expected to get 1 to 2% of the vote - to stand. Vladimir Pribilovsky, head of the thinktank Panorama, said: "Her nomination was supported by part of the Kremlin administration." Ms Khakamada denies the claim.

Ms Khakamada, a Japanese-Russian MP who idolises Margaret Thatcher, targeted Mr Putin's two sorest points: his handling of the theatre siege when Chechen gunmen held 800 theatre goers hostage in October 2002, and the second Chechen war.

She told the Guardian: "The most important problem with power in Russia today is its deep indifference to the lives and rights of individuals. The Nord Ost theatre siege is a very eloquent example of this. Everything, including the testimonies of those inside the theatre, shows lives could have been saved. The knockout gas was used to show a victory over terrorists. The mentality of power in Russia is absolutely similar to that of the Soviet Union".

The Communists lost many of their traditional voters in December's parliamentary elections to a Kremlin-backed party, Rodina, which took 9% of the votes, mostly from Russians previously attracted to the communists' ideas of heavy penalties on big business and a generous welfare state.

Rodina was unexpectedly popular, and the Kremlin feared it may have created a monster - one which might allow its co-chairman, Mr Glazyev, to get more than 2.7%.

Two months later Rodina's other co-chairman, the staunch Putin loyalist Dmitri Rogozin, refused to let the party back Mr Glazyev in the presidential race. Mr Glazyev was forced to run as an independent. Now Rodina has split into two factions - one for Mr Rogozin and one for Mr Glazyev, their squabbles preventing the party from gaining momentum.

Guardian Unlimited (c) Guardian Newspapers Limited 2004